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Understanding Public Opinion Polls in New Zealand

Understanding Public Opinion Polls in New Zealand

A quick guide to understanding political polling in New Zealand, this booklet outlines how polls work, aspects of polls that speak to their quality, including sample size, error, and sampling methods, and how polls relate to actual party representation in parliament.


Funded by: iNZight Analytics

Public opinion polling is an important tool for understanding how a population feels about a particular issue, or which political parties they would vote for. But which details about a poll matter, and why?

This guide offers a brief overview of what information to look out for about a poll, and why this information should be transparent. It outlines how polls work, aspects of polls that speak to their quality, including sample size, error, and sampling methods, and how polls relate to actual party representation in parliament. Journalists reporting on a poll should report information on each of these features as they give important information to evaluate the reliability of the poll results.

If you’d like more information about each of these points, and political polling in the New Zealand context, please consult the accompanying detailed guide, accessible at https://inzight.co.nz/apps/polling-guide.


Related projects

Māori Electorates Tool

Māori Electorate Explorer Tool

A tool enabling users to explore how the number and type of Māori electorates change with changes in both the Census population counts and Māori electoral roll enrolment.

The number of electorates in New Zealand is determined by a calculation based on two sources of information — the results from the most recent Census of Population and Dwellings and the proportion of individuals of Māori descent aged over 18 years who have chosen to be listed on the Māori electoral roll.

This tool enables users to explore how the number and type of electorates change with changes in both the Census population counts and the Māori electoral roll enrolment.

Consequently, this tool provides estimates of electorate numbers that are as accurate as possible, but the definitive answer is only possible with access to information that is not publicly available. However, it provides an effective tool to explore the sensitivity of the number and types of electorates to changes in population counts and electoral enrolment.


Funded by: iNZight Analytics

The Māori Electorate Explorer is currently being updated with more recent information.

Te Ao Mārama: Disability Perspectives of Tāngata Whaikaha Māori

Despite evidence that Māori experience disproportionate rates of disability, there is a lack of accurate, culturally-grounded data on the prevalence and impacts of disability on Māori. This limits understanding of how disability affects Māori health, wellbeing, social inclusion, and economic outcomes, and constrains efforts to address these inequities in policy and disability services.


Funded by: Health Research Council of New Zealand
Hosted by: University of Otago

Led by Bernadette Jones, this project used a Māori-led methodological approach to develop culturally appropriate measures of disability, quantify its prevalence, and examine its impacts on health, wellbeing, social participation, and economic outcomes. It involved a large-scale quantitative survey designed to better understand lived experiences of disability by Māori. The survey explored cultural identity alongside everyday experiences of disability, including the language people use to describe themselves and their limitations.

Te Ao Mārama: Māori Health, Wellbeing & Social Survey Panel

iNZight is heavily involved with the Te Ao Mārama: Māori Health, Wellbeing & Social Survey Panel. Tom Elliott, Lara Greaves, and Andrew Sporle are current members of the Te Ao Mārama team, which works on a variety of projects primarily in the disability space.


Hosted by: Te Ao Mārama Aotearoa Trust

From Te Ao Mārama: Te Ao Mārama is a Māori-led, Māori-governed national research infrastructure designed to strengthen Māori knowledge, wellbeing, and equity. Our kaupapa is guided by Te Tiriti o Waitangi, kaupapa Māori research values, and tāngata whaikaha Māori data sovereignty. The documents below set out our principles, processes, and ethical framework for how the Panel operates, protects participants, and upholds Māori aspirations.

The iNZight team have contributed to a number of papers with Te Ao Mārama, listed below.

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